Assessing the Potential Genetic Impacts of Climate Change to North American Forest Tree Species

Climate change is expected to pose a severe threat to the viability of forest tree species, which will be forced either to adapt to new conditions or to shift their ranges to more favorable environments. Climate change is a priority area identified by the Forest Health Monitoring program of the USDA Forest Service, which is sponsoring a baseline assessment of the risk that climate changes poses of genetic degradation, local extirpation or species-wide extinction to North American tree species. This project has three main objectives: 1) Forecast the location and quality of habitat for at least 100 North American tree species under two climate change scenarios, for the years 2050 and 2100. 2) Measure the minimum required migration distance from each species# current location to the nearest favorable future habitat. Information on the locations of future refuges will be integrated with existing forest fragmentation data to quantify the quality of those refuges and to determine the amount of biotic #resistance# species are likely to encounter as their ranges shift toward those refuges. 3) Assess, with the assistance of other forest geneticists and ecologists, the susceptibility of forest tree populations to genetic degradation and extirpation based on these results and on each species# biological characteristics.

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Author(s): Kevin M. Potter, Dr. Bill Hargrove, Dr. Frank H. Koch

Publication: Tree Improvement and Genetics - Southern Forest Tree Improvement Conference - 2009