Shifting climate, altered niche, and a dynamic conservation strategy for yellow-cedar in the North Pacific Coastal Rainforest

The extensive mortality of yellow-cedar along more than 1000 kilometers of the northern Pacific coast of North America serves as a leading example of climate effects on a forest tree species. In this article, we document our approaches to resolving the causes of tree death, which we explain as a cascade of interacting topographic, forest-structure, and microclimate factores that act on a unique vulnerability of yellow-cedar to fine-root freezing. The complex causes of tree mortality are reduced to two risk factors - snow depth and soil drainage - which are then used to model present and future cedar habitat suitability. We propose a dynamic, comprehensive conservation strategy for this valuable species on the basis of zones created by shifting climate, cedar's ecological niche, and observed risk factors. Research on yellow-cedar decline is offered as a template for understanding and adapting to climate change for other climate-forest issues.