Managing tree seed in an uncertain climate: Conference summary

Canadian forests will experience greater increases in temperature than those growing further south. One set of projections for Ontario indicates that by the end of the century, average summer temperature will increase from 3 to 7oC (southern and northern Ontario, respectively) and that winter temperatures will increase from up to 4oC in the south to 10oC in the north (Colombo et al. 2007). Predictions of precipitation with climate change vary, but future precipitation may be insufficient to prevent large areas of Ontario forests from experiencing more frequent and intense drought (Wotton et al. 2003, Colombo et al. 2007). Such temperature and soil moisture changes would alter the ecological conditions in forests enough to affect how well trees are adapted to local climates. As a result, climate change presents many challenges to sustainable forest management in Canada. The long life of tree species and long rotation cycles mean that the effects of today’s decisions can persist for a century or more. Given projections for Ontario’s future climate, those who are concerned about forest ecology, management, and policy must be concerned about seed source deployment. Important questions include: 1. What if any changes do we make in how we distribute seed sources when planting? 2. When do we make changes? 3. Can we predict the effects of such changes? Out of concern for these issues, a conference entitled Managing Tree Seed in an Uncertain Climate was held on November 14-15, 2007, in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. The event was co-hosted by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (through its climate change initiative) and Forest Genetics Ontario. This conference focused on managing tree seed in a rapidly changing climate, including seed movement (species and populations) and regulatory tools (guidelines/zones); the science behind identifying and predicting patterns of adaptive variation response to climate change (invited speakers’ abstracts are shown in the appendix); the need to revise seed movement decisionmaking; and reforestation aspects of management planning under climate change. The goals of the conference were to: 1. Build awareness about climate change and its potential impacts on the deployment of forest genetic resources (e.g., seed transfer guidelines, seed source bulking, seed banking, and tree improvement strategies) 2. Initiate a dialogue among those concerned about impacts of climate change on forest genetic resources 3. Develop a roadmap of future actions promoting adaptation of forests to future climate