Climate change, uncertainty and the economic value of genetic diversity: A pilot study on methodologies

The report is based on a limited empirical material, which stresses the need for qualified information from genetic research and tree improvement programmes as climate change is picking up speed and forest owners every day make decisions that will affect the stability, health and growth of forest many decades into the future. The decisions are made on information that was produced under a research and tree improvement paradigm focused on tree breeding for production under a known climate believed to be stable. Any new and improved information is greatly needed – even if it is not exact and only indicative. Therefore, existing clone and provenance trials in forest genetic research and tree improvement programmes should be systematically investigated across as large climate gradients as permitted by the location of the trials. Such analysis should be able to bring about at least indicative information on the genotype response to variation in the main climate and growth factors. Such information can subsequently be used in more thorough analyses along the steps outlined here, perhaps with a special focus on potential gains from mixing provenances on the same area. Tree improvement programmes should use the information produced to gradually adjust current recommendations concerning local and regional choices of planting material, and of course to adjust and diversify breeding strategies accordingly – as needed. In the longer run, such research may go into more details along the lines discussed earlier. In particular, genetic research into sensitivity of different provenances and clones to potentially more frequent pest attacks, mild winters etc. may be relevant. On a broader scale, ecological and economic research could aim to provide more information on the way forest ecosystem services and their value rely on the state and characteristics of the forest ecosystem and notably its stability. Such information will be needed for a reliable economic modelling of the consequences of climate change for the provision of such ecosystem services at landscape levels.